This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, with just four storms becoming strong enough to merit names, and none strong enough to be hurricanes. But that may be about to change.
Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an update Thursday to their seasonal hurricane forecast, with a very slight adjustment down from their initial estimates in May. They said that the forecast remains on track for an above-average season, and that they still expect to see between five and nine hurricanes before the season ends Nov. 30.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA.
The announcement comes as the weather pattern suddenly indicates an increase in storm activity across the Atlantic. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, warned that “over the next two weeks, we could be entering a very active period.”
NOAA’s new forecast predicts as many as 18 named storms for the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That’s just one fewer than the agency predicted before the season started. A storm gets a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph, and it becomes a Category 1 hurricane if those winds reach 74 mph.
The number of named storms includes the four tropical storms that have already formed in the Atlantic this season. Four storms had formed by this time last year, too, before Ernesto, the fifth named storm of 2024, formed Aug. 12.
Of the five to nine hurricanes expected this year, NOAA experts predict that two to five could become major hurricanes, defined as a Category 3 or higher. This is similar to the May forecast, when experts said they expected six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major ones.
This is the time of year when these strong storms tend to be more threatening to land, and forecasters urged people to be ready.
“We are still anticipating a slightly above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall,” Klotzbach said.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Source: The Garden Island