The state Department of Transportation has offered to advance the full salaries and benefits of Federal Aviation Administration air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration airport screeners assigned to Hawaii during the federal funding lapse in a bid to avoid a 10% cut to air traffic that could severely impact the state’s economy and public safety.
In a letter sent Thursday to U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, state DOT Director Ed Sniffen requested a waiver from the FAA’s planned reductions, which include Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu among 40 high-traffic airports facing cuts.
The FAA’s phased mandate begins today with a 4% reduction in operations, increasing to 6% by Tuesday, 8% by Thursday and 10% by Nov. 14. International flights are exempt, and airlines may choose which domestic flights to cancel to meet the targets.
Duffy said in a statement issued with the emergency order that safety — not politics — is his department’s top priority and emphasized that proactive steps are keeping air travel safe despite controllers working without pay.
Federal Aviation Administrator Bryan Bedford said in a statement, “We are seeing signs of stress in the system, so we are proactively reducing the number of flights to make sure the American people continue to fly safely.
“The FAA will continue to closely monitor operations, and we will not hesitate to take further action to make sure air travel remains safe.”
Sniffen said in his letter that the state is ready to execute emergency agreements within 24 hours to maintain full staffing and avoid any compromise to safety or capacity.
He warned that the cuts would disrupt cargo movements, limit access to medical care and harm military readiness. Hawaii imports over 85% of its food and relies on daily interisland cargo flights, Sniffen noted, adding that a 10% reduction could strand animals, raise prices and threaten food security.
Sniffen also cited the potential economic fallout, noting that tourism supports over 20% of Hawaii’s economy and 1 in 4 jobs.
“A 10% cut in flights would devastate small businesses, cancel bookings, and trigger layoffs across the state at a time when families are already struggling with high living costs,” he said.
The state is awaiting a response to its waiver request.
Tourism threatened
Hawaii’s tourism industry is bracing for the economic fallout if Hawaii does not receive a waiver and the federal directive is implemented.
Paul Brewbaker, principal of TZ Economics, said Thursday that the reductions could lead to a 7% drop in airline seats from Nov. 1 to Jan. 31 compared with the same period last year, with damage to the state’s reputation as a travel destination compounding the economic impact.
“The FAA’s signaling is adverse,” Brewbaker said. “They are signaling that in the first week of November they don’t know how they are going to manage Thanksgiving travel.”
He said the situation isn’t just about fewer seats, since travelers may hesitate to book at all.
“We are talking about at least a 7% reduction in passengers,” he said.
Chris Kam, president and chief operating officer of Omnitrak TravelTrak America, said air seat capacity in Hawaii is directly correlated to the opportunity to grow visitor arrivals.
“Travelers tend to be resilient, but after a certain point they get nervous about booking,” he said. “Thanksgiving will be the first big challenge.”
Kam said if the situation lingers, it could negatively affect travel over the holiday season and into the first quarter of 2026.
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance, estimated that a 7% drop in domestic arrivals over 60 days could cost the state $170 million in visitor spending and $14 million in tax revenue. His calculations adjusted for occupancy are based on average nightly hotel spending of $400 and $255 in daily ancillary expenses.
Gibson said the situation is still uncertain but warned that an extended disruption could lead to reduced work hours, job cuts and delays in planned upgrades.
At the 769-room Westin Maui Resort and Spa, General Manager Joshua Hargrove said a 10% drop in occupancy could eliminate five daily housekeeping shifts, since housekeeping hours are tied directly to room occupancy and are among the most vulnerable in a downturn.
“A 7% drop might mean losing three or four shifts,” Hargrove said. “That’s a lot of rooms, and those are people in our community who would be affected.”
He warned that a decline in arrivals would ripple beyond hotels, affecting rental car agencies, transportation providers, attractions, retailers and restaurants. He added that he hopes Hawaii is spared from the cuts.
“We rely solely on air travel, unlike other destinations where people can drive in,” Hargrove said.
Disruptions starting
While the full impact is still emerging, Hawaii travelers began experiencing disruptions Thursday. Nationwide, more than 930 flights are expected to be canceled today, according to the flight-tracking website FlightAware.com.
At Honolulu’s airport, FlightAware projected six cancellations today, as of Thursday night, including four Hawaiian Airlines neighbor island flights and two by Southwest Airlines.
Hawaiian Airlines spokesperson Alex Da Silva said the carrier will maintain a robust neighbor island schedule and offer rebooking or refunds to affected passengers. International and mainland flights remain unaffected.
Southwest said it will cut 4% of flights across 34 airports starting today, including about 120 cancellations. International routes are not subject to the cuts, and affected customers can rebook or receive refunds.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a message to employees Wednesday that the airline will focus reductions on regional and non-hub domestic flights. Even customers with nonrefundable or basic economy tickets are eligible for refunds if they choose not to travel.
Delta Air Lines said on its News Hub that it expects to operate most flights as scheduled, including all long-haul international service. The airline is offering flexible options for travelers in affected markets, including penalty-free changes or cancellations, even for basic fares.
Downward trend amplified
Before the federal government shutdown Oct. 1, dampened demand for Hawaii from its core domestic markets was showing up in state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism data.
Year-to-date through September, DBEDT reported that some 7.29 million visitors came to Hawaii, a modest 0.4% increase over the same period last year. DBEDT also reported that 690,858 visitors came to Hawaii in September, down 2.5% from the previous September.
Gibson said the federal shutdown and uncertain economy will exacerbate already challenging market conditions.
“Thanksgiving was already ho-hum. ‘Festive Season’ was already a little below average,” he said. “We were already looking at a very bad pace in the first quarter, especially with the (modified) closure of the Hawai‘i Convention Center.”
Maui remains especially vulnerable, as it is still recovering from a severe downturn following the Aug. 8, 2023, wildfire in Lahaina.
Hargrove said Maui’s hotel occupancy is holding steady in the mid-60% range, roughly on par with last year but still well below pre-disaster and pre-pandemic levels.
“Before the (wildfire), we were in the mid-70s. Pre-COVID we were in the mid-80s,” he said. “We’re still a long way from where we should be historically, and that’s without factoring in any air service reductions.”
He added that the near-term outlook offers little relief: “The best-case scenario is that we would continue to be down like we have been. The worst-case scenario is that we would be down even worse. There’s not even a winning option.”
MINIMIZE DISRUPTIONS
The Hawai‘i Tourism Authority is urging travelers to stay informed and take proactive steps to minimize disruptions by following these travel tips:
>> Update contact info. Ensure the airline has your correct mobile number, especially if you booked through a third-party site.
>> Monitor flight status. Use airline apps and enable alerts to stay informed about delays or cancellations.
>> Arrive early. Whether flying interisland, domestic or international, allow extra time for potential delays.
>> Plan for contingencies. If your flight is delayed or canceled, contact your hotel or accommodations to adjust check-out times or extend your stay.
>> Updates for Hawaii visitors. Visitors currently in Hawaii or planning a trip can find the latest updates at GoHawaii.com; additional information will be posted at hawaiitourismauthority.org.
Source: The Garden Island